Pro's and Con's of Jupuary

Hello my fellow Catdets, Zeroboi’s, and Jupiter lover’s!

I am going to get right into it. I am very curious to see how you guys think about Jupuary and how you think it adds value to our community and economy in the Jupiverse.

PRO’s

  1. Get’s JUP in to more people’s wallets. Maybe some of those people end up converting into long term holder’s and DAO participant’s. I read somewhere recently that 90% of people sold their airdrops last Jupuary. I wish I had the data, but this could be very helpful in us thinking about how much value this actually adds.

  2. Having the opportunity to bless someone who is need of money. I recently saw a post about someone who was able to save their sick dog and pay for their vet bill through their JUP airdrop. This was heartwarming and most likely left a good impression on that person’s crypto journey. They may further speak highly of crypto and Jupiter and attract new market participant’s in future.

3.Hype on twitter. Last Jupuary was clearly a smash and the biggest airdrop many people have ever experienced,myself included. This could be seen as a marketing expense.

CON’S

  1. If I understand correctly, the original plan was to release 1 billion tokens every Jupuary. Meow is proposing a 30% reduction in this amount, so lets say 700 million tokens. For perspective, this is almost double the circulating supply we have currently. This can significantly affect the growth in price of the token value.

  2. Most people sell their airdrop. The massive token distribution event will be a blessing for many Solana ecosystem participants but not for JUP stakeholders. It will lead to a reduction in price and will challenge the idea that JUP can indeed me a valuable resource for long term believers and holders of JUP

My thoughts and existential questions:

Jupiter as a project is primed to be at the heart of the Defi Movement for the next 20 years. Jupiter is more than just a DEX aggregator. It is DAO (a worldwide community who can propose new initiatives and vote on our future), a token/project launchpad that ushers in new innovation and opportunity, a place to trade and propagate new assets on chain like stocks, bonds, real estate, collectibles. It is a project that has the potential to take a large chunk out of the market share of centralized companies like Binance.If we are thinking real big, it has the potential to disrupt tradfi companies like the NYSE and Nasdaq.

So back to JUP. If we are at the precipice of a massive movement, don’t we want to set our token up to have the best chance of increasing in value? Jupuary seems like far too much dilution IMO and could have a very negative effect on the token price and not serve the goal of bringing in new DAO members. I see the benefits of an airdrop: the marketing opportunity is great, the blessing to the Solana ecosystem and JUP customers is great, but even after Meow’s proposed 30% reduction, I think it far too much dilution.

Proposal: Every year we airdrop and burn an equal amount of JUP. There is balance and harmony in this. It teaches people that this airdrop is value and every year the supply is going to be reduced as well. Bitcoin halving process and deflationary nature has proven to be a strong component of the value narrative around BTC. Nothing screams value like an item that is deflationary. I guess it all depends on what we want the JUP token to be. Is it a token for the Solana ecosystem through airdrops or is it a governance token for a bigger mission? Maybe somewhere in between. Curious to hear your thoughts!!

Final thought: I am a big ban of the ASR token dilution. This is going into the hands of stakeholders and those who have a long term vision. It gives people a reason to hold the token. It brings value to the token. I argue the amount we are distributing for Jupuary is WAY too much and doesn’t benefit the value of the token or stakeholder’s on a long term basis.

-Leland

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Doubling the ASR rewards on Jupuary would be my preference

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Interesting idea! Why do you choose this as your preference?

A key criteria for next round should be those who NEVER sold their original air drop. Those are the people who you wants JUP in the hand of!

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All valid points here, i think you steel-manned the positives even though ultimately you think the airdrop is not good long term, as it currently stands… the idea for burning an equal amount of tokens is a good idea, but i would say you would need to limit it to until the max supply is reached (or something like that). I also haven’t done the math on what the actual max supply would look like if we did something like this, which moves me into my main point…

What is the point of $JUP? What is the purpose/use case? To me, it seems like onboarding new members to the DEX and DAO is first, and fund-building is second. Ive not yet peered into the mind of meow to know everything that his intent was, but we must first view things in this framework:

  1. if we want to onboard new members (especially to the DAO), entry cost must be low bc entry cost=voting power
  2. we want to reward voting members with more JUP (hence JUP4JUP)

In order to do both of these things AND have enough JUP to succeed in whatever other crazy experiments on the human condition meow wants to try out, you need a large supply. It’s not just about getting rich, it’s about building an empire, but one where you’ve supported your fellow cat in the process.

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Interesting idea. I’m a fan of rewards being given to those who actively participate. What are your thoughts on the proposed Jupuary airdrop?

Thanks for helping focus my thoughts into a clearer direction my friend! As it currently stands, I do not think the airdrop for Jupuary’s are good for the long term due to the drastic impact I believe they will have on JUP’s price.

  1. If onboarding new members to the DEX and DAO is the primary use case for now, lets try and dig a little deeper into our current strategy /psychology and consider any alternative strategies available as well.

-Current strategy increases supply by nearly 2X come January. Essentially this means we need twice the buying power or holder retention to maintain the same price for JUP that we have now. Come January 2026 the same thing will happen again as well as token unlocks which will put further sell pressure on the token.

  • To be completely transparent here, I have a large position in JUP and my hopes are to be able to sell some of my position at the end of next year and carry an allocation into the prospective bear market to participate in the growth of JUP and our DAO.I love what we are doing here and truly want to be apart of this for the long term. I bring this point up because I’m sure there are other people who are thinking just like me. If the market knows there is a massive supply increase unlocking, it could deter people from investing or could encourage them to reduce their position before that event.

  • Adjustment to Jupuary Scenario 1:

-Instead of releasing 700,000 tokens into the market in Jupuary, we release something a little bit more conservative like 350,000 and also burn 350,000 at the same time. The following year we release 300,000 and burn 300,000. The following year we release 250,000 and burn 250,000. The following year we release 200,000 and burn 200,000. You get the point haha

-If we released 700 million tokens every year, in 4 years that would be 2.8 Billion. This alternative method would release 1.1 Billion into the market and remove 1.1 Billion from supply. This way the market continues to get blessed every Jupuary and we can reward users for many years to come instead of a few years of massive token unlocks . Hypothetically speaking I think this strategy will be less likely to scare people of big token unlocks and also create a psychology around the token that its supply is deflationary and valuable.

  • I am of the school of thought that money is indeed just a meme. So the thought this leads me to is the psychology of the tokenomics. Are investor’s more likely to HODL a token that is deflationary by nature? Or do investor’s prefer a token with a very small denomination like traditional memecoins such as DODGE, BONK, ETC. because the “price” can go up so much higher? I prefer the narrative of JUP being a resource of value. I don’t think the market is going to trade something like JUP like a memecoin. It is too serious of a movement and project. Even if these airdrops are of lower quantities of JUP, they can potentially be higher in USD because of the lower supply.

*Thanks for reading my brain dump! What are your thoughts? Do you have any alternative ideas?

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Sounds like a valid way to reward loyal holders for sure! How would this get JUP into the hands of new members though?

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I agree that Jupuary as planned is not a good idea anymore.

Retrodrops have been an amazing way to decentralize a protocol and give power to the actual users.

But it seems like we forgot about the “retro” part of it and it has become an “airdrop.”

When it’s known in advance, it’s prone to abuse, and the whole purpose gets forsaken.

People who were on Solana during hard times already got their JUP.
People who came later had plenty of opportunities to buy into. Heck, even now the price is affordable.

People who are still not into JUP have no excuses.

There is no reason to dilute those who held or bought JUP in favor of mercenary farmers making pointless transactions that benefit nobody.

Therefore, ASR is the way to move forward.

ASR and target retroactive rewards to limited people and projects who contributed meaningfully without expecting any rewards.

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Wow! @reason captured my line of thoughts almost perfectly. Glad others think this way. Hope all these views are taken into consideration before the Jupuary proposal & vote.

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This is very well said. I agree completely