UPDATE - 22.11.2024
The whole Jupuary (700M) will be unlocked at once, so the original post remains valid.
UPDATE - 10.11.2024
EDIT. This update does not hold true anymore. Everything will be unlocked at once.
The immediately liquid JUP injected to the market after Jupuary is 0,25*700M = 175M JUP at max.
If we assume 50% of it will be unlocked (I personally think it will be less) and the rest is kept unclaimed for bigger allocation, there will be 87,5M JUP added to circulation. That is only +6,5% for 1350M.In this light, I believe the positives outweigh the negatives and the risk of high sell pressure is well controlled.
Original post
Some quick math regarding Jupurary. Something may be off as I wrote this quickly. You will still get the idea.
Circulating supply before Jupurary = 1 350 M
Jupurary = 700 M
JUP price before Jupurary $1 (let’s make it this just to keep it simple)
→ Demand stays the same after Jupurary
Circulating supply after Jupurary = 2 000M (I round numbers again)
JUP price after Jupurary = 1 350 M / 2 000 M = $0,675
→ the drop is 32% in JUP price
Your 1000 $JUP bag worth before Jupurary = $1000
Your 1000 $JUP bag worth after Jupurary = $675
→ In order to keep the USD value the same, you would need to get 481 JUP from Jupurary ( $675 + (481 * $0,675)) = $675 + $325 = $1000
So for every 1 JUP you hold, you should get 0,48 JUP from Jupurary to keep your bags the same dollar value.
1000 JUP bag would need 480 JUP from airdrop
5000 JUP bag would need 2400 JUP from airdrop, and so on…
We don’t know the terms of Jupurary and the demand and supply doesn’t work exactly the way I sampled here, but it is 100% certain that the value of JUP will drop due to excess sell pressure after Jupurary. At least relative to the market performance ( so at least JUP doesn’t perform as well as it would with no Jupurary ).
Another thing is that whales do know this and they also know that relatively speaking they always get smaller ROI than smaller fish. ASR is good because it rewards everyone with the same ROI and doesn’t cause as much sell pressure compared to Jupurary. And if whales are not happy with the voting result, they will most likely start exiting their positions before Jupurary takes place, which causes even more significant sell pressure.
On top of all this, as the Jupurary would increase the circulating supply, it would also increase the amount of staked JUP, which would decrease the ASR ROI. ASR will remain 50M with or without Jupurary. So another reason for whales (and who ever understands basic math) to jump off from JUP.
I can already sense that lots of people want Jupurary because they want more JUP while not understanding that such supply shock would actually get them less. Although we don’t know the structure or terms of the potential 2025 Jupurary, the most benefits goes for those who are NOT JUP holders. Simply because they don’t have bags which would lose value.